Saturday, July 14, 2012

Long-Term Head & Shoulders Top in S&P 500

I pulled a maximum chart for the S&P 500, and noticed something peculiar. The index appears to be in the process of forming a long-term head and shoulders top that could bring the index down below March 2009 lows over the next 6-12 months. A head and shoulders top is an extremely bearish chart pattern. It involves an initial upward movement and minor retreat (forming the left shoulder from 2000-2003 with the S&P 500 peaking at 1498), followed by another upswing to new highs (forming the head from 2003-2007 with the S&P 500 peaking at 1526). The right shoulder is then formed by another move up, but not as high as the previous move higher (2009-NOW). If this pattern completes, I expect the S&P 500 to fall to 600 or less before there is a new long-term bull market for stocks. Otherwise, if the S&P 500 closes convincingly above 1526 in the coming months then the markets will be off to the races.

2 comments:

  1. I totally agree, we could be in for another depression with all the credit problems arising throughout the world. Everything is interconnected and I hope it doesn't happen, but it's not looking good. That's why we have to act to hedge and prepare just in case.

    cheers

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    Replies
    1. Right on! It's not about being right or wrong, it's about being protected either way.

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